Today marks six months (OK, one day out) until the next scheduled Senedd election.
I don’t intend to start election coverage (at State of Wales) until next March at the earliest with planning already starting for that. Given the milestone date, it’s worth looking at where the parties are at the moment and what challenges they face before the election campaign kicks into gear.
The first question is, of course, “Will the election go ahead next May?”
Given this term has already been far too long, it’s difficult to see how an extension could be justified. Under the Government of Wales Act 2006, the election date can only be varied unilaterally by a month anyway. It looks like a report will be published shortly as there’s a statement scheduled in the Senedd on 17th November on the subject of election planning.
If the Covid-19 situation is as bad next spring as it is now, there would probably be no choice but to push the Senedd and police commissioner elections back further into the summer – though I’m not sure how, unless it requires a specific law.
Social distancing will require parties to rethink how they campaign and local authorities will need to rethink polling station logistics. Will the election still be undertaken mainly in person or will it become an all-postal ballot? Additionally, how will 16-and-17-year olds – hit hard by the exam fiasco in the summer – affect the vote (if they affect it at all)?
Labour
How are things going so far in the Senedd?
If you’re in the Welsh Government, reasonably well. If you’re a Labour backbencher, could do better.
The legislative programme this term has been fairly unambitious, admittedly not helped by the uncertainties caused by Brexit and Covid-19.
The Welsh Government has a higher profile than ever before, but while Ministers bask in their newfound midday BBC limelight, the Senedd has been sidelined, with criticism that too many announcements have been made in front of the cameras and not in front of MSs.
Backbenchers were playing a peripheral role even before the pandemic. They should use this last six months to wield their power and make some noise given there’ll be some big votes coming up on local government reforms and the new curriculum. It’ll prove whether those Labour voices calling for STV in local elections, for example, really mean it or not.
What are the key challenges over the next six months?
Dealing with the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic first and foremost, as well as the seemingly certain No Deal Brexit on January 1st – a double whammy which will need the public’s continued goodwill.
The Welsh Government’s response to Covid-19 has been, in general terms, more warmly received than the UK Government. However, it’s more a case of them not handling things as badly as the Conservatives than doing anything exceptional themselves. When the pandemic has passed and the detailed inquests start into the Welsh Government’s response the picture won’t be that rosy – but the election will likely be out of the way by then.
What will they be hoping for in 2021 (at this moment in time)?
It’s going to be a defensive election given that Labour has the most to lose overall, so there’s little to say for now. There are no obvious constituency targets (maybe Aberconwy) and due to the nature of the electoral system, Labour have never done well on the regional lists outside of Mid & West Wales.
Keeping what they have or only losing one or two seats is a realistic aim. Putting local factors into consideration (I doubt Blaenau Gwent will be in serious play this time around), that’s probably what we’re heading for depending on how vigorous the campaign itself is and whether the pandemic and completion of Brexit change the dynamic in the final few months.
Conservatives
How are things going so far in the Senedd?
Until last year they were a fairly effective opposition group. Things have turned wobbly during 2020. Some of their most high-profile spokespeople have wasted questions to ministers or tried to make out they haven’t been answered when they have. They have to offer us something more than simply railing against a policy they don’t like and giving it an alliterative or rhyming name (“cruel rule”, “barmy ban”)….and I’m not convinced it’s working for them.
For everything they (sometimes correctly) accuse the Welsh Government of getting wrong, it’s often easy to point to the UK Government doing or saying the same things but with outcomes that are several magnitudes worse.
Additionally, July’s reshuffle wasn’t radical enough. If Paul Davies believes the Welsh Government should be cut back to seven ministers (a position I have a lot of sympathy for), he should’ve led by example. Politicians and parties that say one thing then do another aren’t considered particularly trustworthy.
What are the key challenges over the next six months?
Making this election one that Tory voters are going to turn out for. The biggest problem they’ve had in Senedd elections is the fact their supporters don’t take it seriously.
It’s clear they’re going for a populist/anti-establishment angle – which may help turn this into a genuine contest for a change. They’ve talked themselves into a corner by betting on public reaction turning against the Welsh Government’s Covid-19 measures (I can picture some Welsh Tory staffer getting ready to superimpose Mark Drakeford’s face on The Grinch), but more often than not it’s left the Tories with egg on their faces.
Playing and replaying the message that the Senedd is getting a bit too big for its boots and that the Union is under genuine threat – requiring “revolutionary” action – overplays the strength of both Welsh devolution and the independence movement. If I were at the top of Yes Cymru, I’d take recent Tory pants-wetting over independence as a massive compliment.
What will they be hoping for in 2021 (at this moment in time)?
You get a sense they’re snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Somewhere and somehow, they’re getting some bad advice.
They look and sound like an unreliable partner in a coalition (which is the only way they’re going to win any power next year), attack anything that doesn’t fit in with their increasingly narrow world view and have been flying kites on either rolling-back devolution or even direct rule.
Nonetheless, based on recent polling and 2019’s results they could realistically target up to 20 seats – but they’ll need to take the regional list contests far more seriously than they did in 2016.
Plaid Cymru
How are things going so far in the Senedd?
Things have been ticking over relatively smoothly. They’ll land punches, have been a constructive opposition during the Covid-19 pandemic and occasionally make a good speech. Objectively, there are few complaints in terms of the performance of individual MSs. Has it worked for them? That’s debatable.
Most of Plaid Cymru’s issues are off the field (again). For a party that has always seemed to prioritise presentation over substance, they’ve bent over backwards to generate bad optics – antisemitism rows, internal disputes (they’ve just lost at least one of their councillors in Bridgend) and administrative problems, the lack of gender balance on the recently-announced regional lists and producing multi-point plans without any accompanying detail.
What are the key challenges over the next six months?
Money and media exposure. In terms of the latter, in an election that could well end up being mainly fought online you would think Plaid’s relatively large social media reach gives them an advantage over the other parties – but that advantage disappears in an echo chamber.
Keeping their expectations in check (always a difficult task on Planet Plaid) and overcoming the media coverage barriers to prevent this from becoming a Westminster mid-term is the same difficult situation Plaid have found themselves in at every Senedd election since 2003.
Finance will be a bigger problem. During his leadership campaign, Adam Price supported moving Plaid away from their reliance on legacies/estate donations towards micro-donations and a membership drive. While memberships have increased, there doesn’t seem to have been a surge to the same extent as Yes Cymru.
As things stand, they’re unlikely to dramatically increase their share of the vote beyond the usual 20-25%. Their election prospects hinge on carefully targeting resources at the most promising constituencies, whilst at the same time not under-resourcing or under-prioritising the far-more-important (in terms of seat numbers) regional lists – even pitching to pro-devolution and pro-independence Labour voters to lend them their second vote in the south Wales regions and the north. It’s no good winning one extra constituency if they lose two list seats in the process.
What will they be hoping for in 2021 (at this moment in time)?
Plaid have long seen themselves as a government in waiting. At the very least they’ll hope to be in a position to be the leading partner in a ruling coalition and still remain on course to be kingmaker.
The chances of a working relationship with the Conservatives have long been dead despite the UK Government being able to dangle some big carrots in front of Plaid (big capital investment on a pet project like the Swansea tidal lagoon or a Carmarthen-Aberystwyth rail link).
Labour would find a lot of common ground in terms of policy, but unlike 2007 they won’t be in a position to offer constitutional reforms (electoral reform of the Senedd might be the only exception but depends on pro-reform seat numbers after the election) and there’s a danger of Plaid Cymru Lib Demming themselves if they prop up Labour again for very little.
There have been hints that Adam Price would expect to hold the First Ministry (or share it) even if Plaid were junior partners. It’s difficult to see Labour accepting that.
The Other Parties
I assume some of the people reading this hope we return to the relative dull stability of four-party politics after the musical chairs of the current term. But could it end up being three-party politics?
There’s an element of uncertainty about the future of the Welsh Lib Dems following last week’s shock announcement by Education Minister, Kirsty Williams, that she was standing down next year.
Recent polling for the Lib Dems has been dire and the potential loss of Kirsty’s personal vote in Brecon & Radnor could turn a safe seat into a genuine contest with the Conservatives. It’s pointing towards a potential wipe-out, but the Lib Dems do have a survival instinct and they remain competitive in some areas. A surprise regional list gain or two can’t be ruled out.
One interesting recent development is the Green Party in Wales‘ shift to a pro-independence stance. They’ve always been ambiguous on the national question, but it could yet again be the case of Plaid Cymru being far too established amongst the green-minded and nationalists for the Greens to make up any ground.
As for Plaid’s competition from other parts of the political spectrum, at least two new nationalist parties will stand next year – whatever Neil McEvoy’s party will eventually be allowed to call itself Propel and Gwlad. You would expect McEvoy to remain competitive in Cardiff West, but with the First Minister’s visibility and popularity having increased substantially over the last few months, the task of taking the seat is much harder than it was in 2016.
With the Brexit Party seemingly set to pupate into another Nigel Farage populist bandwagon (Reform UK) and UKIP in an open coffin wearing a tinfoil hat there’s little you can say about either of them for now. None of the members of the recently-formed Independent Group for Reform has the necessary profile to make any inroads expect possibly at a constituency level (and that’s being kind).
While there’s still a long way to go, as the most recent poll shows the ones to watch are Abolish the Assembly (re-registration pending). They’ve been running a far better organised online campaign over the last year than previous efforts. As one of the original UKIP splinter parties they already have electoral experience in Wales and only need to improve by two-to-three percentage points on 2016 to start winning regional list seats. With UKIP and BXP voters potentially looking for a new home, it’s not an unrealistic outcome – although the competition for direct rule and devosceptic votes with the Conservatives may present challenges they wouldn’t have otherwise expected.
