Support for Welsh independence has gradually increased over the last decade or so, though a majority of people polled in Wales want Wales to remain part of the United Kingdom.

In May 2026, Plaid Cymru – one of two parties explicitly supporting Welsh independence, along with the Greens – became the single largest party in the Senedd, though the majority of MSs represent parties that support the Union.

On September 23rd 2026, the Senedd voted in favour of a non-binding (amended) motion which supported the principle of the people of Wales being able to decide their own constitutional future.

As of May 2026, the devolved governments of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are all led by parties with goals for their respective countries to secede from the UK.

On 14th September 2026, the first ministers of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland signed the Cardiff Declaration, which states their respective nations’ right to self-determination¹.

There’s no single right or wrong answer as to why support for Welsh independence has increased, but it’s likely to include:

• A decline in British national identity in Wales.
• Different powers being devolved to different parts of the UK (“assymetric devolution”), which rightly or wrongly creates a sense of “unfairness” in how the UK is set up (i.e. Crown Estate, rail infrastructure in the case of Wales).
• Wales, and other “peripheral” areas, being “squashed” by England’s size in the Union, or London’s economic clout.
• The long-standing economic impact of industrial decline, combined with other economic shocks such as Brexit and the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The economic and social successes of “smaller” countries in Europe (i.e. Nordic countries).
• Lack of faith or trust in pan-UK institutions such as the BBC, the monarchy and the UK Parliament.
• UK political instability, corruption and incompetence (i.e. Boris Johnson, UK approach to Brexit, Liz Truss mini-budget, austerity, Keir Starmer’s period as Prime Minister).
• Growth in support for Welsh independence amongst younger age groups.
• The establishment of an organised pro-independence campaign group (Yes Cymru) and the holding of All Under One Banner marches.

Nobody, because nothing’s happened yet. A hypothetical future independence referendum would affect everyone in the country.